Metroplex 5A Realignment Analysis
District 3-5A
Although Abilene is thought to be a winner here, when you critically analyze it - you may find some different ideas. First of all, they are not playing the huge rivalries week in and week out and Coach Warren may have to keep them emotionally high. Secondly - they are doing the same sort of traveling - but they are not going to get the same sort of revenue. You'd have to estimate that Little SWC games would average 10k fans a game. How many do you think are going to come out for a Thursday night Paschal vs. Abilene game? I think their bottom line will be hurt. More of a winner in this district is Richland. They are immediately competitive for a playoff spot and likely a favorite. Not many projections you'll see will have Richland out of the playoffs. Haltom is another big winner - same thing as well. Haltom is likely going to be very competitive against Weatherford, Burleson and North Crowley - and will only need to beat 2 of the 3 to make the playoffs. This district has always been mocked as the weakest in the area, but now that will go to the new 9-5A - and it will have some punch. Richland was very competitive last season - and Haltom likely would have made the playoffs in this district.
District 4-5A
Everyone is a winner here. Mansfield and Summit will get some good competition, cut down a little on the travel costs and have some heated games. Mansfield and Arlington share a common border and they have overlapping school zones in areas. Sam Houston probably is a couple of years of rebuilding from being competitive. Mansfield schools have done an extremely good job of maintaining the waves of student loss with the new schools open. They continue to compete at high levels with move-ins and transfers. The system, necessarily, has not been too complex - but as there is more stability, there can be more complexity. I think this is very good for Bowie and Martin - two teams that were able to make the playoffs the last two years despite the tough district - as they will continue to enjoy success. Two AISD teams are guaranteed to make the playoffs - and we could also see trickle down success as teams could go three deep depending on who comes out of the 1-5A/2-5A bi-district.
District 5-5A
A lot of people are disappointed Southlake was not put in this loop - and perhaps Justin Northwest moved to 3-5A. Perhaps the UIL did this intentionally to keep Trinity and Southlake out of the same loop - although first round games are hypothetically possible, but it would be a first seed vs. second seed game, so it would likely lose a little of the luster. For all sports, this should be a very competitive, tight-knit loop. For football, the Keller schools will open their remodeled stadium with some great Thursday games. Fossil Ridge vs. Trinity could be the type of game we could see on a Thursday night. After Trinity, I think you will have a very competitive 5-6 spots. Keller Central may be the cellar-dwellar in this district still and Northwest may slip a bit after graduating its top classes in awhile. I think the football fans in this area will be in for a treat. Fossil Ridge will feel the sting of going from being the big dog in a district to being a dog in the hunt.
District 6-5A
Coppell is already a loser. Shipley may be looking to leave - he may see the writing on the wall. He removed his name from consideration for the Lake Travis job - but there's always the joke about the UIL realignment trickle down effect, and Shipley may be the first casualty. Southlake already has a hard enough time filling out non-district schedules - and it is one of the few schools sitting in February with open dates. Luckily for them they have "sports marketing firms" with the sharks preying around the blood looking for more ways to market the team and make themselves money - so they'll probably find something. Coppell is the only team that didn't make the playoffs last year in this loop, and CFBISD is replaced with Southlake. Yeeouch. LISD last year, for my money, had the best football for a 3 school ISD or more pairing in the metroplex. Flower Mound was competitive with Southlake, and I've always thought Flower Mound would create match-up difficulties with Southlake. Unfortunately - they will have to play them for two more years. Although LISD coaches are rumored for the "good jobs" that are out there now - some of the best coaches in the area will be in the district. I was at a Flower Mound vs. Grapevine game last season, and the Flower Mound fans have huge numbers. For a district that already puts two of its marquee games at Texas Stadium, expect huge crowds for these games. Football wise, this is the best district in the metroplex - relative to average team quality. All six teams are likely top 30 teams with Southlake being a top 5, and Hebron being a top 10 program.
District 7-5A
The district as a whole is a little bit of a loser being paired in bi-district against Plano schools - especially considering all sports. In football, they'll be able to hold their own. Duncanville is a huge winner. They will likely be penciled in as the second or third playoff representative in this district and Coach Dicus will get a chance to get "immediate returns" so to speak. With the Irving schools, as a whole, down, South Grand Prairie also steps up. In football, at least one Irving school is almost guaranteed to make the playoffs unless Grand Prairie gets a lot better. Cedar Hill is going to clearly be the big dog - but that will be an interesting position for Cedar Hill because they have been really tested in district the last couple of years. I don't see them being tested as much in this district - so will they be able to keep their intensity at a high level? Coach McGuire, one of the brightest coaches in the area will have to do a different style of coaching this season. Instead of being the hunters, they'll be the hunted. I see a budding rivalry with SGP and Cedar Hill - the battle of Belt Line perhaps - as the two schools are connected by Beltline as it curves up 1382 toward the radio towers.
District 8-5A
A pretty solid district. McKinney Boyd is the great unknown. How good will they be? Their system is very sound. They have one of the premiere coaches in the area, and like Wylie, I think they will fare well. I will not make the bold claim that Boyd will go 0-6 this realignment against the Plano schools. Wylie's success has made a great new rivalry with the PISD schools - one I think Wylie feeds off of - as they have been competitive in three of the six games, winning two of them against PISD opponents. Jesuit may be the shark meat - and Haggar Stadium, a private school stadium that holds 4000 (likely split 3000/1000) will be an interesting venue to see games from with Plano and Allen having pretty huge followings. The bye week will be interesting as this is the first time in the history of Plano ISD that they have had to deal with an odd numbered district. If Boyd and Jesuit follow the Wylie recipe, of relishing the opportunity to take the underdog role, you could see one of the most competitive districts out there. Plano is still the big dog, and Allen has the best facilities and numbers of players and coaches, but you can't count out the other teams. Boyd, like Wylie did, will take its bumps in the first year, but should fare well in the second year. Wylie returns a great sophomore class, one of the best QB's in the area, and a pretty salty defense.
District 9-5A
Coach Childress may stick around one more year after seeing this realignment. He was likely to take an early retirement otherwise. Coach Whitson is very honest. He has told me and others that Richardson EXPECTS to lose in football, therefore the focus is on other things and with a change, the culture of Richardson High might start to change. Coach Whitson has his wish. Richardson showed huge improvement last year - even if the scores didn't indicate it - simply watching them you could see they were on the right track, and one can pretty much pencil in wins over Sunset, Molina and WT White. Richardson may be over .500 with the chance to really shine in this district. Don't get me wrong - they won't go three rounds deep quite yet - but if they can get the athletes to start coming out and change the culture - you never know what can happen - look at what Mike Shields did with Red Oak in a season. Richardson has that high level calibur of a coach. This is also good for Skyline because Skyline, in general, is not tested until the playoffs outside of Carter. Now, they are going to have some games on their hands. Berkner had a very salty sophomore class and they aren't afraid to get physical. Defending Berkner's triple option will be difficult for Skyline. Lake Highlands is heading in the right direction as well, assuming their coach hasn't gone anywhere. They were VERY efficient last year and could give a team like Skyline trouble. Creekview will have one more good crop of athletes coming through and has to be considered the favorite for the fourth playoff spot. With Skyline and Berkner sure to take the big school seeds, Creekview has a legit shot to have to make the second round - music to the CFBISD's ears.
District 10-5A
All Garland ISD this time. Rockwall is a winner as it will get to build rivalries and be the big dog on the block in 4A - whereas the last couple of years, it had extreme talent but competing against teams much bigger than it with a realignment number that did not accurately reflect the student body. Garland ISD is a big winner as they will have an easier time and have complete control over scheduling. There will still be at least one Thursday game a week in GISD - which is a given with three games each week in district and only two stadiums. Scheduling should be a little easier as South Garland had four straight Thursday games last year - situations like this should be avoided this season. This will give Naaman Forest a chance to continue to be competitive again this year as well as it should put Garland back in the playoff picture. North Garland and Sachse will likely still be at the bottom - but as even as Garland ISD football has become, they will definitely become more competitive. Garland ISD doesn't change much, but I do think the dynamics of the district will slowly shift toward a more "not so good" district. I don't see a powerhouse coming out of GISD this year.
District 11-5A
This district "won" by not having the expected additions of Cedar Hill, Duncanville and Desoto. In considering what the UIL would do - they did look toward the trio of Desoto/Duncanville/Cedar Hill. Why they chose Desoto? Who knows - perhaps poetic justice for griping about their placement last time, they figured they'd take care of them this time as well. Perhaps Desoto is geographically closer. It will be weird to consider Desoto and Duncanville in different districts, much less different regions. I do think the district got a little bit easier. Longview had won the district for the last four years, and Desoto will be down this year. It really is more of an open race - and I think a race where the teams may see a shift in the power. Compared to 6-5A, I do not think this district is as strong from top to bottom. The district will be very competitive and tie breakers will almost certainly determine who is making the playoffs and who doesn't; however, the usual suspects, Tyler Lee, Desoto and Mesquite will be penciled in for spots - and the other three will be battling for the fourth spot.